I noticed the other day Fangraphs had projected playoff odds for MLB teams based on their current, beginning-of-spring-training rosters and FanGraphs’ Depth Chart predicted WAR. The Mariners somehow are projected to win 85 games and have a slightly greater than 50% chance of making the playoffs, despite making piddly off-season moves!
Well, then, I said to myself, the Wolverines might be miraculously blessed, too! I should check it out. So I created a spiffy Excel spreadsheet of our current rosters, entered the FGDC projected WAR for my players, and for Old Detroit it added up to 40.6! Best I could remember, a FG replacement level team would win 45 games or so — so FG was predicting a winning record in Old Detroit this year, almost identical to the Mariners! And I hadn’t even drafted anybody yet!
I was so excited I entered all 10 of the other EFL teams, and made some discoveries. I’ll list the teams in the order of their team predicted WAR for 2025, showing their WAR, predicted record as of now, open roster spots, room under the salary cap, and their best player WAR-wise,
- #1: Peshastin Pears (!!)(!!)(!!): 50.8 WAR. (P – 13.4, H – 37.4)
- Projected record: 93 – 69.
- Open slots: 8
- Room under cap: $69,500,000
- Best player: Bobby Witt, Jr.: 6.9 WAR.
- NOTE 1: it seems replacement level is lower now than I remembered. The 0 WAR team would now win approximately 42 games, judging by how Fangraphs’ projected wins match up to MLB teams’ project team WAR.
- NOTE 2: The Pears not only appear to have the best team at this moment, they also have the second most salary cap room! Only $500,000 more than the third most cash-flush team, but still — they have a massive lead coming out of the winter season.
- #2: Pittsburgh Alleghenys: 43.2 WAR (P – 10.3, H – 32.9)
- Projected record: 85 – 77.
- Open slots: 6
- Room under the cap: $46,750,000
- Best player: Adley Rutschman: 4.6 WAR
- NOTE 3: That’s a HUGE gap from #1 to #2. Made huger by the Pears’ having about 50% more cash with only 2 more slots. Already the Pears are reminding me of the Dragons at this point last year… and look who won our trophy.
- #3: Flint Hill Tornados: 38.8 WAR (P- 7.7, H – 31.1)
- Projected record: 81- 81
- Open slots: 8
- Room under the cap: $53,750,000
- Best player: Juan Soto: 6.5 WAR
- NOTE 4: Yes, the Wolverines were supposed to be in this slot, but there’s been a terrible accident. I’ll explain later.
- NOTE 5: The T’s also have Julio Rodriguez, picked to produce 6.1 WAR. No other tea has a 1-2 punch like that, although Peshastin’s 1-2 (Witt at 6.9 and Cal Raleigh a 5.3 ) comes close.
- #4: Canberra Kangaroos: 37.1 WAR. (P – 9.0, H – 28.1)
- Projected record: 79 – 83
- Open slots: 12
- Room under the cap: $62,750,000
- Best player: Riley Greene, 4.3 WAR.
- NOTE 6: Of the 9 hitters on the Kangaroo roster, none project to be worth less than 1.5 WAR (Ceddanne Rafaela). The Alleghenys have four projected for 0 WAR.
- NOTE 7: If a player is projected for less than 0 WAR, I recorded it as 0, assuming we aren’t going to activate below-replacement players.
- #5: Haviland Dragons: 36. 0 WAR (P – 11.2; H: 24.8)
- Projected record: 78 – 84
- Open slots: 11
- Room under the cap: $48,750,000
- Best player: Tarik Skubal, 5.5 WAR.
- NOTE 8: The Dragons could almost skip all the drafts and STILL not fall as far or as hard from championship to sediment as the Wolverines did last year. But they have to draft at least 2 pitchers, a second baseman, and an outfielder — and somehow get to 25 players.
- #6: Salem Seraphim: 34.6 WAR (P – 10.1; H – 24.5)
- Projected record: 77 – 85
- Open slots: 8
- Room under the cap: $86,750
- Best player: Corbin Carroll (grrrr): 4.2 WAR
- NOTE 9: This is a staggering amount of money to have, with 22 of your slots already filled. But starting 16 WAR behind the Pears… that’s going to be a real challenge.
- #7: Cascadia Glaciers: 33.9 WAR (P: 6.5 , H: 27.4)
- Projected record: 76 – 86
- Open slots: 9
- Room under the cap: $65,750,000
- Best player: Ronald Acuna Jr.: 4.9 WAR
- NOTE 10: Last year’s upstart expansion team, beating the defending champions in the standings, take aim at this year’s defending champions. They have not caught them yet, according to FanGraphs, but they have $17,000,000 more dollars available. That’s about 35% more cash than the Dragons have available at this moment. There, John, you have more warning than I had about the perils of the Glaciers.
- NOTE 11: Perhaps even worse, somehow the G’s have traded for an extra first round Rookie pick.
- #8. Kaline Drive: 33.0 WAR (P – 7.2; H – 25.8 )
- Projected record: 75 – 87
- Open slots: 7
- Room under the cap: $63,000,000
- Best player: Gabriel Moreno: 4.2 WAR
- NOTE 12: The Drive are in good position to escape the dreary cellar where they spent the bulk of 2024. Having an excellent catcher is a big help. They are so hard to find.
- #9: DC Balk: 30.7 (P – 6.2 ; H – 24.5)
- Projected record: 73-89
- Open slots: 9
- Room under the cap: #33,000,000
- Best player: Patrick Bailey: 5.1 WAR.
- NOTE 13: The Balk edged out the W’s for 9th place by one measly tenth of a WAR. That’s going up in the Wolverine locker room. That’ll get the W’s player motivated to play better!
- NOTE: 14: $33,000,000 is the least any team has available to spend. That’s not really a good sign for a projected (for now) 9th place team. ON THE OTHER HAND, our salary cap will go up after Opening Day, which is a bigger deal to the teams with the least money. So help is on the way!
- #10: Old Detroit Wolverines: 30.6 WAR (P – 11.7, H: 18.9)
- Projected record: 73 – 89
- Open slots 10
- Room under the cap: $69,000,000
- Best player: Carlos Correa: 4.1 WAR
- NOTE 15: So how did the W’s lose 10 whole WAR — almost 25% of its expected WAR — in an instant, to fall from #3 to #10- on this list? I discovered I had given Jose Caballero an 11.1 WAR projection, instead of the 1.1 WAR he deserved. “Deserved” according to FanGraphs. I still have high hopes for my fine early second round pick last year. MY PREDICTION: If Jose Caballero is worth 11.1 WAR this year, the Wolverines will get that trophy back.
- NOTE 16: Being #3 in terms of available salary cap is nice and all. But from down here it does not look like enough to return the W’s to competitiveness. We’re slated to repeat 2024 in Old Detroit so far. Let’s see if we can change that.
- NOTE 17: Chin up, Wolverines! We have worst best player in the league!! We have the worst offense in the league, too, by a very healthy margin. This means it’s easier to imagine improving at every position than it is for anyone else. Woohoo!
- #11: Portland Rosebuds: 27.7 WAR (P – 5.1, H: 22.6)
- Projected Record: 70 – 92.
- Open slots: 15
- Room under the cap: $66,500,000
- Best Player: Gunnar Henderson, 6.7 WAR.
- NOTE 18: The Rosebuds apparently have the least talent on their roster of any team in the EFL. That’s a huge fall from finishing second in the pennant race, not eliminated until the final week.
- NOTE 19: But they have the second-best player in the league. And they have quite a bit of money. And almost no clutter on the pitching staff — PLENTY of room there to add some good players.
