Earlier I warned you to look out for two teams:
- The PEARS! They were way ahead of everyone else in FanGraphs predicted WAR for 2025.
- The Seraphim! They had way more money than anyone else.
But now we’ve finished our Rookie Draft. Did the rest of the league rein in those two menaces?
Here’s how we stand for Predicted fWAR: (NOTE : these are rough figures. Players’ fWARs have changed in many cases over the last few weeks, but I haven’t done a thorough update on the players you had going into the draft)
Peshastin: 57.2 (added 6.4 in the draft)
Pittsburgh: 44.4 (added 1.2)
Cascadia: 44.1 (added 10.2)
Canberra: 44.0 (added 6.9)
Salem: 42.1 (added 6.2)
Flint Hill: 41.3. (added 3.2)
Kaline: 40.9 (added 8.0)
Haviland: 39.2 (added 3.2)
Old Detroit: 37.3 (added 7.5)
D.C.: 35.0 (added 4.0)
Portland: 33.3 (added 5.6)
So, yeah, Peshastin actually increased its lead over its nearest competitors, the Alleghenys.. But watch out for the Glaciers, moving with very unglacial speed through the the league! And don’t sleep on the Kangaroos, who joined the cluster at 44 wins above replacement (apptoaching a 90-72 record).
Salem spent its money so fast its huge financial advantage has disappeared. The Seraphim, at $35,500,000 left in the coffers, are only second now in that category, with the Rosebuds the new leaders ($38,500,000). Three other teams still have at least $30,000,000 (Flint Hill, Peshastin, and Old Detroit) but of those Peshastin is the happiest about things since it is so far ahead in preseason indicators. There’s a significant gap (over $5,000,000) between the 5th and 6th place teams in cash remaining, with 5 more teams nursing balances in the $20,000,000 – $25,750,000 range. The Balk, who started the day relatively short on cash, are even shorter now ($13,600,000).
It seems an EFL team aspiring to win the championship has to carry at least 50 fWAR on its roster. The Pears are already there, and they have plenty of money to push their total beyond 60! They have so far spent about $1,447,000 on each win they’ve amassed in predicted fWAR terms. Salem is second-most efficient so far this year, but the difference is substantial: $1,894,000 per fWAR win. Here’s how the rest of us stand:
- Flint Hill: $1,967,000
- Canberra: $2,034,000
- Pittsburgh: $2,044,000
- Cascadia: $2,154,000
- Kaline: $2,213,000
- Old Detroit: $2,259,000
- Portland: $2,305,000
- Haviland: 2,347,000
- DC: $2,904,000
With a salary cap of about $120,000,000, we need to keep our spending under about $2,400,000 per win to get to the 50-win level for true contention for the championship. Wins tend to be relatively expensive in the Free Agent draft — the key in the EFL context is usually having lots of 2d – 5th year Rookies racking up wins on bargain salaries.
Of course, all this is based on fWAR, which isn’t an exact predictor of our teams’ performances. The other ways to win is to have players who
- exceed their WAR projections, OR
- help us in ways (eg, ERA, or perhaps defensive ratings) that are imperfectly matched to WAR models, or
- do better than average at avoiding injuries, or
- mesh nicely in your lineups so you aren’t leaving WAR on the bench (or gaps filled with replacements).
All that said, the message is still the same:
BEWARE THE PEARS!
… and watch out for the Glaciers in the near future.
