Congratulations to the Seraphim and Tornados for a very exciting finish! And special congratulations to the Tornados for coming out on top!

Before I dig into some statistical details, I want to thank Old Detroit for dedicated work bringing us entertaining (nearly) daily updates, presented with a variety of interesting details and anecdotes. (You have to be careful what you say to Ron during the season). Even though I didn’t respond, I noticed his reference to Coronado Heights, that mountain knoll just a few miles from where 3 of our managers lived for a few years. One of the three can still remember those days. I tried to include a picture of that massive gentle rise but wasn’t tech-savvy enough to make it happen. There are plenty of pictures online, but most are of the castle rock structure on top.

[Coronado Heights was lofty enough (as compared to the flatness surrounding it) that it could be seen from several miles away, and it was a landmark along the Santa Fe Trail back in the day. When we would leave McPherson headed up I-35 I’d always make sure to spot it, just for comfort, I guess. Kinda like (but just kinda) how I always start looking for Mt Hood as soon as I get past Sherwood.]

Now, for the real focus of this post.

As I did last year, I have dug into the gnarly details of our statistics to see which teams benefited from good luck or suffered from bad luck with respect to our Pythagorean records. Below are the final results.

POS	TEAM	WIN%	RS	RA	PYTH	LUCK
1	FH	0.615	810.19	661.41	0.600	0.015
2	SS	0.612	798.35	655.99	0.597	0.015
3	CG	0.578	691.86	605.23	0.566	0.012
4	CK	0.556	786.95	704.94	0.555	0.001
5	PP	0.545	736.14	675.88	0.543	0.002
6	HD	0.516	813.43	806.30	0.504	0.012
7	KD	0.473	599.02	706.59	0.418	0.055
8	OD	0.468	639.69	754.90	0.418	0.050
9	PA	0.459	691.62	771.12	0.446	0.013
10	PR	0.458	721.88	856.49	0.415	0.043
11	DC	0.366	648.36	877.93	0.353	0.013

The fourth column is the Pythagorean (expected) winning percentage while the last column is the difference, actual minus expected. I’ve called it LUCK because it measures how much our teams outperformed their expected winning percentage (or underperformed in the case of a negative value) but notice – all the values are positive! In no doubt a statistical oddity every team outperformed their Pythagorean winning percentage!

There are interesting things to observe in this chart. In particular we can see that Haviland had the best offense, followed very closely by Flint Hill while Old Detroit scored the fewest runs, followed closely by DC, and you can also see that Haviland allowed third to the most runs, bettering only Portland and DC. Six teams had positive run differentials.

Here’s another table:

POS	TEAM	WIN%	PYTH%	LUCK
1	FH	0.615	0.600	0.0149
2	SS	0.612	0.597	0.0150
3	CG	0.578	0.566	0.0115
4	CK	0.556	0.555	0.0012
5	PP	0.545	0.543	0.0024
6	HD	0.516	0.504	0.0116
9	PA	0.459	0.446	0.0132
7	KD	0.473	0.418	0.0548
8	OD	0.468	0.418	0.0501
10	PR	0.458	0.415	0.0427
11	DC	0.366	0.353	0.0131

This table is our standings sorted by Pythagorean winning percentage. Notice there is very little difference in the standings – Flint Hill again ekes out a championship, eking it from Salem (improbably by identical 3-point margins, at least to three decimals). Then Cascadia, Canberra, Peshastin and Haviland fall into their proper positions. It’s not until position 7 that there is a discrepancy where the Alleghenys move from position 9 to 7, and then again, order prevails.

One final table:

POS	TEAM	WIN%	PYTH%	LUCK
7	KD	0.473	0.418	0.0548
8	OD	0.468	0.418	0.0501
10	PR	0.458	0.415	0.0427
2	SS	0.612	0.597	0.0150
1	FH	0.615	0.600	0.0149
9	PA	0.459	0.446	0.0132
11	DC	0.366	0.353	0.0131
6	HD	0.516	0.504	0.0116
3	CG	0.578	0.566	0.0115
5	PP	0.545	0.543	0.0024
4	CK	0.556	0.555	0.0012

This one is sorted by LUCK. Evidently Kaline was the luckiest team (did it feel that way, Tom?) followed closely by Old Detroit and Portland. While Pittsburgh’s position in our final standing suffered the most, it wasn’t due to bad luck for them but rather a lot of good luck to the teams just above them in the final standings.

And, just like in the mid-season update, Canberra is the unluckiest team, edging out Peshastin.

Of course the real luck relates to injuries that our teams suffered, and we can all tell some stories there. And Salem has a good case – the day after they obtained Kyle Tucker in a trade he went on the injured list until the last weekend of the season. But in case Salem is upset about that, I’ll just remind them that last year they traded Mookie Betts to the same team who sent them Tucker. Betts was immediately hit by a pitch and missed about two months of the season.

Now, on to the postseason and eventually the Hot Stove season.

Go Royals! (next year)