I did a little study of the Expansion Draft results, and noticed a few things.
Thing 1: The two drafting teams were cost conscious. Of the 28 players drafted, here is the distribution of their 2024 salaries,
13 $750,000
4 $1,000,000
8 $2,000,000
1 $2,500,000
1 $4,000,000
1 $7,000,000
There were 429 players available in the expansion draft. The average 2024 salary of those players was $2,381,662 — almost the same for EFL teams as MLB teams. The average 2024 salary of an expansion draftee was $1,544,643. Of the 28 drafted last Saturday, only 3 were more expensive than the average available player.
And here’s an alarming note: Of those 3 somewhat more expensive players, all three went to the Dundee Dummies.
Those three overpaid draftees were Patrick Wisdom ($2,500,000) from the Cubs, Nestor Cortes ($4,000,000) from the Yankees, and Kyle Schwarber ($7,000,000) from the Dragons.
Here are some people both teams passed on:
- Jacob deGrom (TEX) $38,750,000
- Anthony Rendon (LAA). 38,000,000
- Yoan Moncada (CWS) 29,000,000
- Carlos Rodon (NYY) 27,000,000
- Robby Ray (SEA) 24,333,333
- Chris Taylor (LAD) 15,000,000
- Avisail Garcia (MIA) 14,500,000
- Julio Urias (PR) 12,500,000
- Ross Stripling (SFG) 12,500,000
- Clayton Kershaw (CK) 12,250,000
- Taylor Rogers (SFG) 12,000,000
- James McCann (BAL) 12,000,000
- Antonio Senzatella (COL) 12,000,000
- Manuel Margot (TBR) 12,000,000
- Rafael Montero (HOU) 11,500,000
- Drew Smyly (CHC) 11,000,000
- Chad Green (TOR) 10,500,000
- German Marquez (PR) 10,000,000
- Daniel Bard (COL) 9,500,000
- Jose Alvarado (PHI) 9,250,000
- Byron Buxton (OD) 9,000,000
- Nick Martinez (CK) 9,000,000
- Aaron Bummer (CWS) 8,500,000
- Frankie Montas (PA) 8,000,000
- Travis D’Arnaud (ATL) 8,000,000
- Kendall Graveman (HOU). 8,000,000
- Josh Bell (OD) 7,000,000
…and so on.
If those Dummies and Glaciers think they can snub these elite-tier contracts without repercussions… well, I have news for them, at least from an Old Detroit perspective: You’ll be sorry when Byron Buxton is miraculously healthy for the first time ever, and Josh Bell is supernaturally focussed, and they BOTH put together TWO half seasons of All-Star-level play.
And if that doesn’t make the Glaciers shrink like it’s 2099, look at all those other EFL teams with similar imprecations in their hearts.
THING 2: Here is the distribution of how LONG the contracts were of the players drafted:
Year CG DD
- 2024 1 10
- 2025 3 1
- 2026 5 2
- 2027 5 1
The average contract available in the draft will expire about June 1, 2026. The average EFL contract available in the draft will expire in the first week of May in 2026. The average contract drafted by the Dummies will expire around the All-Star break in 2025. The average contract drafted by the Glaciers will expire immediately after the last out in the last game of 2026.
These Glaciers aren’t looking to shrink, no matter how hot things get in the EFL.
Although you wonder why the Glaciers didn’t jump on any of the three 2099 contracts available in this draft. Or maybe Carlos Rodon, who had the only available contract running through 2028.
The Dummies, on the other hand, drafted like there was no tomorrow. And guess what? For them, they were right!
THING 3: The Expansion Draft drew on EFL players at almost exactly the rate it should have.
There were 429 unprotected players overall, 92 of them available from EFL teams. That means we were under-represented in the mass of players available — we should have had more like 150 players to provide our share. Of course, we only had a 30-man roster limit, while the MLB teams have 40, so there’s a good explanation for this.
However, there were 28 players taken in the draft. 10 of them came from EFL rosters. That’s 35.7%. As 11 of 30 franchises in our distorted fantasy world, we should have provided 36.7% of the draftees.
We stepped up. We can all be proud of ourselves.
Thing 4: A different study, but this one leads to a Wolverine woe.
No one took Andre Jackson. This is a good sign for both Dummies and Glaciers: Jackson signed a contract to play for the Yokohama BayStars in 2024. I didn’t really expect either team to relieve the W’s of the $1,500,000 we owe Jackson this year.
So I have spent too much time the last few weeks trying to discover what the BayStars are paying Jackson, so I could at least discount my obligation. (I DFA’d him before the BayStars signed him.) I found some evidence of MLB players making $1,500,000 in Japan, which made my hopes soar.
But yesterday, while scouring for BayStars salary data, I found this article from last March. The key sentences are the headline (“Trevor Bauer Signing With Yokohama BayStars Doesn’t Impact Salary Owed By Dodgers”) and the last paragraph:
Bauer signing with the BayStars does not have any impact on the amount the Dodgers are paying Bauer. Had Bauer signed with an MLB club — which presumably would have been to be for the league minimum ($720,000) — that amount was to be deducted from what the Dodgers owe Bauer.
I remember a case involving the Mexican League where I ruled a team (not the Wolverines) could get a discount if the EFL owner could document the salary the player was receiving in Mexico. But apparently MLB teams don’t get credit against lingering obligations when the player signed an overlapping contract outside of MLB (and its minor leagues).
Unless we find a source indicating otherwise, the Woeverines will be saddled with Jackson’s $1,500,000 all the way through 2024. For maybe 10 innings, 3 earned runs last September we probably didn’t need.
I wonder if I can find a new GM.
The Wolverines should certainly not get ANY relief for Jackson, since the Tornadoes ate the entirety of Frank Schwindel’s contract last year after he departed for the Swallows of Yakult. That $2.5mil could have come in REAL handy when trying to stave off the pesky Wolverines last season.
I forgot about Schwindel. So I guess we have been down this road already. I didn’t remember having anything so definite about it before I read the article about Bauer.