Take a look at this. What do you see?
Here’s what I see:
1. After a good start to the week, in which the Pears gained ground on everyone except the Alleghenys, the Pears over the last two days have lost ground against EVERY TEAM IN THE LEAGUE.
Yes. Even the Wolverines.
2. The gainers, in order of their gains v. the Pears:
- Salem: 1.9 games, on pace to catch the Tornados in the next day or two.
- Haviland: 1.9 games, on pace to blow past the Pears into first place TODAY.
- Cascadia: 1.6 games, but slated to stay in 8th place a little longer.
- Canberra: 1.6 games, on pace to bound past the Pears on Sunday.
- Pittsburgh: 1.2 games, already passed the Balk, could conceivably catch the Pears before week’s end.
- Flint Hill: 0.9 games, on pace to slip into 7th place today or tomorrow.
- Portland: 0.7 games, stuck in 9th place for now.
- Kaline: 0.5 games, stuck in 10th place for now.
- Old Detroit: 0.3 games. OD is even deeper in last place, but a little bit closer to first place — an interesting paradox.
- DC: 0.2 games: started the week in 3rd place, but may be in 8th place before Week 6 begins.
3. The Pears now have three pursuers closer to them than any were at the end of Week 4.
4. As I carefully explained to all of you, our poor start as a league in the first two weeks left us several games below .500 as a league. During Weeks 3 – 13, We would be protected against further drastic declines while playing each other, since those EFL v. EFL matchups would all sum to .500. We could, however, make small but important gains if each week the one EFL team playing average MLB competition could record a winning record.
The Glaciers, to their credit, did well against the MLB in Week 3, going 3.5 – 2.5 in their six games. However, the Rosebuds in Week 4 undid those gains and then some, going 2.1 – 3.9 against average MLB competition.
This week we have our first place team — the heretofore mighty Pears — playing mediocre MLBers. It’s Peshastin’s chance to lift the entire league!
However, I have bad news: the Pears are only 0.8 – 2.2 against MLB. If you can’t beat average MLBers, you don’t deserve to lead the EFL standings!
5. I don’t mean to pile on, but there’s more bad news awaiting the Pears: over the next two weeks their closest pursuers are likely to get HUGE boosts in the standings. In Week 6 it will be the Kangaroos’ turn to feast on Woeverine road kill, which should leave them in first place. Then in Week 7 it will be the Dragons’ turn. The Pears could be 5 or 6 games out of the lead by the end of Week 7, unless they turn things around quickly.
6. The news is not much better for the Seraphim. They have already had half of a week’s Wolverine sandwiches, and have so far only gained one spot in the standings. Two more easy steps up are in view this week, which would move Salem from 8th to 5th in one week. But then they’ll say goodbye to the worst team in the league until sometime in the second half of the season.
Also — even though their opponents are the pathetic W’s, the Seraphim cannot expect the OD raw winning percentage to stay at .056 all week. Not even the Woeverines are that bad. The S’s will have to significantly improve their embarrassing .305 raw winning percentage if they want to stay anywhere near their current .880 adjusted win percentage for the week.
All these points portend poorly for the Pears. But there’s an upside, too. If the Pears can turn things around starting TODAY, when things are looking so bad, and stave off all these onrushing hordes, they can build confidence in the Peshastin clubhouse, and set themselves up for a great season.
